Impoundment of the Zipingpu reservoir and triggering of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, China

Impoundment of the Zipingpu reservoir (ZR), China, began in September 2005 and was followed 2.7 years later by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake (WE) rupturing the Longmen Shan Fault (LSF), with its epicenter ~12 km away from the ZR. Based on the poroelastic theory, we employ three-dimensional finite element models to simulate the evolution of stress and pore pressure due to reservoir impoundment, and its effect on the Coulomb failure stress on the LSF. The results indicate that the reservoir impoundment formed a pore pressure front that slowly propagated through the crust with fluid diffusion. The reservoir loading induced either moderate or no increase of the Coulomb failure stress at the hypocenter prior to the WE. The Coulomb failure stress, however, grew ~9.3-69.1 kPa in the depth range of 1-8 km on the LSF, which may have advanced tectonic loading of the fault system by ~60-450 years. Due to uncertainties of fault geometry and hypocenter location of the WE, it is inconclusive whether impoundment of the ZR directly triggered the WE. However, a small event at the hypocenter could have triggered large rupture elsewhere on fault, where the asperities were weakened by the ZR. The microseismicity around the ZR also showed an expanding pattern from the ZR since its impoundment, likely associated with diffusion of a positive pore pressure pulse. These results suggest a poroelastic triggering effect (even if indirectly) of the WE due to the impoundment of the ZR.